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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.